Last week, Turkey responded to German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel's inauspicious statements, which targeted Turkish-German economic relations, at the highest level with a speech from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The fact that the lie told by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) deputy that Turkey is carrying out investigations into German companies operating in Turkey is not surprising at all given the party's history. This is because, considering the political positions that the SDP has adopted since the early 20th century and its policies that were based on lies and that tottered especially before World War I and World War II, Gabriel's statements, which are full of lies, are of historical significance as well.

Prior to World War I, German social democrats forgot their history and promises and followed in the footsteps of Kaiser Wilhelm II, who wanted an imperialist war. The SDP approved the war and war budget in the German parliament in August 1914. One week before, however, the same SDP called on the world and its own people, saying: "We do not want a war. We will resist the aggressive war policies of the German Empire until the end." One week after, the SDP turned into the kaiser's war party and betrayed humanity. Now, nothing has changed.

Gabriel, who is telling preposterous lies about Turkey at the moment, visited Turkey in early 2013 as SDP president. During this visit, Gabriel said: "I do not know when Turkey will become a full member of the EU, but I know that Turkey should be in the future of the union," and stressed that if Turkey did not become a member of the EU, Europe would be weaker for it.

During the same visit, Gabriel also said that he disapproved of Greek Cyprus's membership in the EU, explaining that it was not fair for Greek Cypriots, who rejected the Annan plan, to join the union.

Does Gabriel now think about the same thing about Greek Cyprus, which suspended reunification talks with all pretexts? I do not think so.

The history of the SDP is full of lies given that it has never been an organization of German civil society, but of the German state since the beginning. In this regard, Gabriel represents not a free market and civil society, but a militarist state.

The situation that German industry and economy has fallen into today is not much different from Germany's pre-World War II situation. After having been defeated in World War I, Germany had to accept the grave conditions set out by the Entente powers. The Treaty of Versailles cut off the arms of the German economy. At that time, British economist John Maynard Keynes opposed the agreement and its harsh conditions, predicting that it would lead to a new war. Germany was prevented from reaching markets and energy resources. Now, Germany is devoting billions of euros to Industry 4.0 and seeking to actualize the new industrial revolution, but knows that it will not be possible and that it is losing the lead in the new industrial revolution to Asia. German industrial companies and global investors, which Gabriel has provoked against Turkey, cannot fulfill the requirements of the new industrial revolution in Central Europe. These companies need Turkey, Turkey's young population and market. Germany will soon understand that it will not be able to survive without Turkey in Southern and Eastern Europe. It is rapidly drifting into a crisis because of the monetary and fiscal policies it imposes, and it will end Germany's unjust domination over the EU.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, an Italian, has raised the balance sheet of the ECB to 4.2 trillion euros. He launched billions of euros of bond purchase programs in order to prevent a new crisis, especially in Southern Europe, and is maintaining them. Germany is enraged by these bonds, which are at negative interest, while Italy and Portugal are very angry with Draghi because they are in the same pool.

Germany is very eager to see the economies of Italy, Portugal and Spain hit rock bottom so that they become dependent on Germany just like Greece. Apart from this, the transatlantic energy lines meeting these countries through Turkey provokes a fearful dream for Germany. Another horror for Germany, which has lost the Russian energy routes to Turkey as a result of the Turkish Stream, is the northern energy transit routes.

For all these reasons, Germany wants to replace Draghi with a German when his term of office ends. Germany will do what it is doing to Turkey today, to Italy, Portugal and Spain very soon. Before that, however, it wants to lower Turkey's guard and prevent all possible political and economic cooperation between these countries and Turkey. In this respect, 2019, when Draghi's term of office will end, will be a year when a new German-based crisis will break out in the EU.

Therefore, Germany will maintain its policies. However, German companies in Turkey should know that Turkey is safer and more profitable for them than Germany now, and the Turkish market will always be indispensable for them. Moreover, the fact that Germany has opened the customs union up for discussion will be a dispute that will end with harm not for Turkey, but for themselves. If Turkey abandons the customs union today, it will not harm, but instead benefit Turkey. Turkey is incurring losses in this state of the Customs Union. If the Customs Union continues this way, Turkey will not want to stay in a customs union with the EU. This is because Turkish industry and Turkish companies working on a global scale have learned global competition, and have caught up with the global scale of productivity and technology. The elimination of the customs union will not harm Turkey anymore. It hurts the EU, particularly the German economy. Turkey is no longer the Turkey of 1996, and it knows global competition.

German investors and German-based global companies should turn a deaf ear to the liar president of the SDP, the history of which is full of defeats and lies, and which has destroyed the Germany economy. From now on, Turkey is safer than Germany as Germany will struggle to turn the European Central Bank into the German central bank after Draghi's term of office ends. This helpless insistence from Germany will bring Southern Europe to the brink of a new crisis and the effects of this crisis will be very traumatic for the German economy, as well. In the near future, Southern Europe, especially Italy, will understand that it must act with Turkey. After two years at the latest, Europe will face a new wave of crises. Keynes' famous theory of liquidity trap is now valid for Europe, which Germany is dragging to a crisis. German investors should unworriedly bring their capital to Turkey which has the free market of energy and is an endless market based on a young population. As Erdoğan says, Turkey holds German and European investors in high esteem and protects them. Currently, there is no more profitable and safer country for investors than Turkey. Turkish-German relations are deep-rooted and profound enough not to be broken due to SDP politicians who betray their own people.

Now, energy and the market are in Turkey. German companies should know this and invest more in Turkey for their future.

https://www.dailysabah.com/columns/cemil-ertem/2017/07/26/why-turkey-is-safer-than-germany